Meet the Top Two Contenders Set to Win Big At The Melbourne Cup 2024

The 2024 Melbourne Cup is just around the corner and will be among the most exciting of all time. This year, two European contenders, Vauban and Absurde, are poised to compete for the coveted trophy. Understanding and analysing how these two performed in the 2023 iteration of the Cup is an excellent guide for making sports betting decisions for the race this November.

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Overview of the Top Two Horses

This year’s Melbourne Cup features two European powerhouses, Vauban and Absurde. Both are trained by the renowned Irish maestro Willie Mullins and offer great options for your Melbourne Cup betting strategy.

Vauban, a 6-year-old gelding by Galiway, boasts an impressive 40% win rate from his 20 starts. He has eight victories and seven placings under his belt. His victory in the 2023 Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot over 2400m demonstrated his strong finishing speed and adaptability to varying track conditions. Initially opening at $15 odds, Vauban has seen his price shorten to around $9. This indicates a growing confidence in his ability to handle the Melbourne Cup’s 3200m distance.

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Absurde, a 5-year-old gelding by Fastnet Rock, has a respectable 29% win rate from his 21 starts, securing six victories and eight placings. His recent triumph in the Virgin Bet Chester Stakes over 2900m cannot be overlooked. This victory highlighted his stamina and staying power, essential qualities for the Melbourne Cup. Absurde’s odds have significantly shortened from $26 to around $17, suggesting that punters recognise his potential to cause an upset.

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Head-to-Head Performance Comparison

Vauban and Absurde present intriguing profiles for the Melbourne Cup. While they share a trainer and European origins, their racing styles and strengths differ significantly.

Vauban is known for his versatility and consistent performances. He often settles midfield and displays a good turn of foot and strong finishing speed. This tactical adaptability has allowed him to adjust to varying race tempos and track conditions, a valuable asset in the unpredictable Melbourne Cup. His victory in the Copper Horse Handicap showcased his ability to handle a strong field and a distance close to the Cup’s 3200m.

Absurde tends to be a late closer, as he often settles towards the rear of the field and relies on a powerful finishing burst to secure victory. This strategy allowed him to win at the Virgin Bet Chester Stakes. In this race, a devastating late surge allowed him to overtake his rivals and is certainly a style that can be advantageous in the Melbourne Cup.

Comparing their key attributes, Vauban appears to have the edge in terms of consistency and tactical versatility. His ability to adapt to different race scenarios could prove instrumental in navigating the challenges of the Melbourne Cup. Absurde, however, boasts a powerful finish with proven stamina over longer distances cannot be discounted.

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Key Factors Influencing the Outcome

For Vauban, the step up in distance to 3200m presents a challenge. His pedigree suggests stamina shouldn’t be an issue. But whether he can maintain his strong finish over this extended distance remains to be seen. The track condition on Cup day will make all the difference. While Vauban has performed well on varying ground, a firm track might not suit his running style as well as good to soft conditions.

Absurde’s key strength lies in his powerful late surge. So, if he can settle comfortably and conserve energy in the early stages, his finishing burst could be decisive. A slow pace might hinder his ability to make up ground effectively. However, Absurde’s lack of experience racing at Flemington might worsen this challenge. A favourable barrier draw may just make the difference for his late-closing style.

Experts suggest that Vauban’s ability to adapt and consistent form give him an edge. Yet Absurde’s late surge could be a game-changer if the pace of the race allows him to utilise his strengths.

Betting Insights for Future Melbourne Cup Races

When reviewing contenders, their past performances over distances close to 3200m is a revealing insight for those looking to place smart horse racing bets. Speed is undoubtedly essential, but stamina reigns supreme in the Melbourne Cup. So,  look for horses with a proven track record over longer distances, ideally at Flemington itself.

Melbourne’s weather can be unpredictable. Because of this, you should factor in a horse’s adaptability to different track conditions. Go for those with a history of performing well on both firm and soft ground. A skilled jockey usually makes an enormous difference, too. Consider their experience in major events like the Melbourne Cup and their ability to adapt to changing race dynamics.

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Get Ready For The 2024 Melbourne Cup

Vauban and Absurde, both trained by Willie Mullins, are formidable contenders in this year’s Melbourne Cup.  Vauban’s consistency makes him a reliable choice, but Absurde’s powerful finish could be a decisive factor. Apply these insights to your Melbourne Cup wagers and unlock the potential for incredible rewards! Follow us for more awesome horse racing betting tips to help you win more bets!

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More About Cameron Hollands

After working part time in one of Australia’s finest casinos to fund his journalism studies, Cameron Hollands discovered a passion for sports betting. A few years and many successful bets later, he is now putting his considerable experience to good use, and is a regular contributor for australiansportsbetting.net.
Cameron’s expert advice, insight into the sporting world and straightforward reporting style has earned him many fans, and he enjoys sharing his expertise with fellow punters.

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